Stacie Hartman

The Mortgage Blog of Stacie Hartman

A Brighter Forecast for Housing in 2011

The National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun says the housing market has regained stability and expects further gains in 2011. Pointing to positive trends in the overall economy, as well as housing prices, sales, and affordability, Yun predicted existing-home sales will reach 5.5 million units next year, home prices will rise 1.0 percent, and GDP will be up 2.5 percent. Consumer confidence, business spending, and job growth are the keys to continued economic growth and recovery according to Yun. Also, NAR’s U.S. Economic Outlook for October forecasts a significant increase in sales in 2011 and continued improvements for residential construction. More here and here.


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Housing Starts Up Unexpectedly In September

Housing starts hit a five-month high in September, despite expectations that they’d fall. According to a report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, housing starts were up 0.3 percent from August and 4.1 percent above last September’s levels. But despite the unexpected jump, building permits for future construction fell 5.6 percent because of a 20.2 percent drop in permits for multi-family units. Permits for single-family homes rose 0.5 percent. More here and here.

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Residential Construction Rises To 4-Month High

Housing starts rose 10.5 percent in August, reaching their highest level since April. The unexpected jump is a sign that the housing market is beginning to stabilize after the summer slump that followed the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. According to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, building permits and housing completions were also up in August. Stuart Miller, Lennar’s chief executive, said there’s been an increase in activity after a tough summer for the housing industry. More here, here, and here.

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Housing Starts Rise As Permits Fall

Housing starts rose a less-than-expected 1.7 percent in July while applications for building permits fell to their lowest level since May 2009, according to a report from The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Permits were down 3.1 percent from June and 3.7 percent from last year. Year-over-year, housing starts fell 7 percent. The drop in building permits coincides with a report from The National Association of Home Builders showing builder confidence at its lowest level since March 2009. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the report reflects the frustration builders are feeling regarding the effects foreclosed property sales are having on the new-homes market. Still, the NAHB feels that a combination of modest job gains, low mortgage rates, and pent-up demand will lead to a stronger housing market in the second half of 2010. More here, here, and here.

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Housing Starts Down, Building Permits Up

Housing starts fell 5.0 percent in June, hitting their lowest level since October 2009. But though the Department of Commerce’s residential-construction statistics show the second-straight month of declines in privately owned housing starts, they also show a 2.1 percent rise in building permits. The unexpected jump in permits suggests a boost for building activity in July. Michael Gaspen, an economist at Barclays Capital, said the market is trying to find a bottom following the expiration of the tax credit but he still expects housing starts to slowly rebound in the second half of the year. More here, here, and here.

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Housing Starts And The Recovery

Billy Procida, president of real-estate firm William Procida Inc., believes the excess housing inventory will be absorbed over the next few years but doesn’t foresee significant gains in pricing.

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Housing Starts Up 41% Over Last Year

According to The Department of Commerce’s April report on new residential construction, housing starts jumped 40.9 percent from last year and 5.8 percent above the month before. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said increased demand from the home buyer tax credit lifted construction but its expiration has homebuilders wary, noting the 11.5 percent drop in building permits. Despite the drop in permits, which suggests starts will also fall off this summer, a recent report from the National Association of Home Builders showed builder confidence at a 2-1/2 year high. More here, here, here, and here.

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Analyst Forecasts Better Than Expected Housing Recovery

Stephen Auth, chief investment officer of Federated Investors, believes housing is on the road to recovery and could significantly contribute to economic growth within a year. Based on numbers compiled by JP Morgan Chase, Auth argues that housing starts will have to double just to keep up with demand, which is projected at 1.3 million units per year through 2014. Housing starts, which peaked at 2.1 million units in 2005, have been at 500,000-600,000 for more than a year. If those numbers hold, excess inventory will be absorbed and housing starts will rebound dramatically. More here.

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Housing Starts, Permits Up In March

The Department of Commerce’s residential-construction statistics for March show building permits and housing starts both up from February. Building permits were 7.5 above February’s rate and 34.1 percent above March 2009. Housing starts were up 1.6 percent from the previous month and 20.2 percent above last year. Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics said the rebound is a sign that stronger home sales have spurred builders to start construction again. More here, here, and here.

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About Me:

Stacie Hartman is a wholesale mortgage Account Executive working with loan officers in Oregon and SW Washington. She has 18 years in the mortgage industry, an extensive knowledge of financing options, and a commitment to open communication and client service that make her stand out in her field. Her goals begin with uncompromising service and end with excellent results and repeat business.


Stacie Hartman
360 Mortgage Group
Account Executive
Oregon and SW Washington
Phone: 503.757.9565

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