Stacie Hartman

The Mortgage Blog of Stacie Hartman

Experts Differ When Forecasting Housing’s Future

With the spring selling season underway and many of the government programs aiding the ailing housing market expiring, experts and industry insiders have differing opinions on where housing’s headed. Warmer weather typically boosts buyer traffic and, according to the National Association of Realtors spokesman Walter Molony, housing could become self-sustaining with a significant sales surge followed by job creation in the second-half of the year. On the other hand, Robert Shiller, co-founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, argues that, despite recent momentum, there isn’t enough evidence to support the optimism among many economic forecasters. Shiller says, until there is evidence that the fundamental thinking about housing has shifted, the momentum cannot be trusted. Fed Chairman Ben Bernake also questions the evidence of a sustained housing recovery. Still, The Wall Street Journal, points to recent improvements in the overall economy as reason to believe that concern about real-estate’s woes may be outsized. And Scott Simon, managing director and head of Pimco’s mortgage-and asset-backed securities team, doesn’t feel that the Fed’s exit from the market will have a substantial impact on mortgage rates.


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